Pwin (Probability of Win) is a common tool used in Government Contract Capture Management. Unfortunately it’s a very misunderstood tool. Pwin is your probability of winning a specific opportunity you’re evaluating. Methods of calculating Pwin vary from company to company and system to system. Paid pipeline tracking systems and proposal management systems frequently calculate a Pwin for you, but their methodology is usually proprietary. Manual methods for calculating Pwin are available, but must be applied consistently. If Pwin is not applied consistently it loses its value. Finally, there is the “Gut Check” method. The Capture Manager makes a guess at the probability. Of course, this
isn’t a very scientific method of estimating Pwin, but it shouldn’t be discounted either. A good Capture Manager should have a pretty good idea of what Pwin should be. One use of PWin people frequently fail to utilize is it’s ability to track the progress of you Capture Efforts. As you progress through the Capture Process your PWin value should increase. So recalculate your PWin often to see if it is trending upward. If your PWin is not improving you may need to revisit your Capture Processes or your Capture Plan.

Phil Davidson
Author: Phil Davidson

I have worked in the Defense Industry as a contractor for over 20 years. I do Business Development for a small aviation company right now, but I have worked as a full-time and part-time consultant over the years. I decided to redesign my website as a place where I can share information about my experience and help companies come together for working together and teaming.

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